Nope, it's a war, it's just not evenly distributed across the globe.

Probably the best example, is the current conflict with Russia and Ukraine. It's a global cyberwar, with real (life and death) consequences.

https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2022/04/27/hybrid-...

https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2022/06/22/defendi...

It's not unrestricted cyberwar, but I also don't think we have a complete picture of the scale of the cyber conflict, nor do we have a complete picture of the attacks and defences being mounted.

> The belligerents are not trying to disable agricultural systems or power grids; an actual war is a horse of a different color, and would likely be regarded as a proper escalation in the physical realm.

There have been any number of attacks on physical infra. and civil institutions that fit that description. Sandworm (a group in the Russian military) alone has successfully brought down power grids multiple times.

I think that there's a difference between state sponsored hacking and a government turning a blind eye to illegal activities that happen to fulfill the same effect without their hands being dirtied. Incentives, such as potential future employment or the good graces of (more or less corrupt) local authorities when it comes to other illegal activities, can make a significant impact on influencing an adversaries' overall cyber readiness.

"According to a report on grid security compiled by a power industry cyber clearinghouse, obtained by POLITICO, a total of 1,665 security incidents involving the U.S. and Canadian power grids occurred last year. That count included 60 incidents that led to outages, 71 percent more than in 2021." [0]

Uh, no. There have been a massive number of attacks attempting to take down the power grid. It's just that the protections in place are currently working most of the time.

Unfortunately, the official stats tends to combine both physical and cyber attacks, so there's no clear sense of which is dominant... But, frankly, there isn't a need to separate them. The attacks are happening.

[0] https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/10/power-grid-attacks-...