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0 pointsshihab1y ago0 comments

Yes, polls are an imperfect tool. But I think they remain the only tool we have to gauge what decisions coming out of Washington are product of broad popular support vs ones product of intense lobbying from shadowy powers.

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6 comments · 3 top-level

Gormo1y ago· 2 in thread

It's not that polls are imperfect, it's that they're often entirely misleading and incorrect. And if the only tool you have to do a job isn't fit for purpose, then that just means that you aren't equipped to do the job properly.

If the only tool we have for measuring Washington's behavior against public opinion is one that doesn't accurately reflect public opinion, then that means that we just don't have a reliable way to measure Washington's behavior against public opinion.

mlekoszek1y ago

> It's not that polls are imperfect, it's that they're often entirely misleading and incorrect.

Can you point to the source of your argument? Furthermore -- can you point out how this particular poll is one of the misleading and incorrect ones?

Gormo1y ago

The previous commented made an on-target point about how polls can often be manipulated to produce contrived results. I've seen plenty of cases that corroborate this: differently constructed polls showing wildly different breakdowns of opinion on the same issues among the same population, surveys full of obviously leading and loaded questions, etc.

So given all of that, I think the burden of proof is properly the other way around. Why do you think this particular poll is reliable?

lukeschlather1y ago· 1 in thread

Most policies aren't the sort of thing that is going to attract broad popular support (or opposition.) Did you look at the opposition numbers? Who are the "shadowy powers?" Lawmakers say that China is the shadowy partner here doing bad things with Tiktok. I don't necessarily trust the US government on this issue, but I was speaking to a Chinese national last year, they asked me why the US was banning Tiktok. When I said "because China is using it to spy on Americans" they replied "Of course they are!" and laughed.

I think there are probably some people who are pushing this for self-interested reasons (American social media apps) but also I think the stated reason for the ban is probably the truthful motivation, and I'm ambivalent about trusting the US government and US corporations not to spy on me, but I tend to trust the US government when they say they are trying to stop China from spying on me. And if zero people spying on me is not an option, well, fewer people would probably be an improvement.

kelnos1y ago

> I was speaking to a Chinese national last year, they asked me why the US was banning Tiktok. When I said "because China is using it to spy on Americans" they replied "Of course they are!" and laughed.

Right. If the Chinese government is not using TikTok to spy on citizens of their adversaries -- or, more likely, influence citizens of their adversaries -- then the Chinese government is full of incompetent fools. And I think it's safe to say that the Chinese government is not full of incompetent fools.

aksss1y ago

Counterpoint: shadowy powers of lobbying publish the polls to manufacture consent and put pressure on politicians.

Alternate tools include:

* elections, e.g. flipping control of house to party opposite the president.

Numerous examples of badly and broadly worded polls exist to tell you 87% of the country agrees on XYZ. There isn’t a damn thing up for debate in the United States that 87% of the population agrees on, so that’s your first tip-off. A nuanced question garnering 56% may be more believable, but even then, stay highly skeptical of polls: poll MoE, poll audience selection, poll respondents, and poll questions. Together these all make for a house of cards.

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