Have you tried o1 pro? I find people that are making these assertions are not deeply using the models on a daily basis. With each new release, I can see the increase of capability, and can do things. I have written software in the last year that is at a level of complexity beyond my skill set. I have 15 years of SWE experience, most at FAANG. You just arent close enough to the metal to see what's coming. It's not about what we have now, its about scaling and a reliable march of model improvements. The code has been cracked, given sufficient data, anything can be learned. Neural networks are generalized learners

Broadly I agree with your position, but:

> If you can find a way to make the context window on the scale of the human brain, you may be able to mostly mitigate this.

Human brains have a much smaller context window than AI do. We can't pay attention to the last 128,000 concepts that filtered past our sensory systems — our conscious considerations are for about seven things.

There's a lot of stuff that we don't yet understand well enough to reproduce with AI, but context length is the wrong criticism for these models.