Author here! While working on h-matched.com (tracking time between benchmark release and AI achieving human-level performance), I just added the first negative datapoint - LongBench v2 was solved 22 days before its public release.
This wasn't entirely unexpected given the trend, but it raises fascinating questions about what happens next. The trend line approaching y=0 has been discussed before, but now we're in uncharted territory.
Mathematically, we can make some interesting observations about where this could go:
1. It won't flatten at zero (we've already crossed that)
2. It's unlikely to accelerate downward indefinitely (that would imply increasingly trivial benchmarks)
3. It cannot cross y=-x (that would mean benchmarks being solved before they're even conceived)
My hypothesis is that we'll see convergence toward y=-x as an asymptote. I'll be honest - I'm not entirely sure what a world operating at that boundary would even look like. Maybe others here have insights into what existence at that mathematical boundary would mean in practical terms?
