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0 pointsedanm1y ago0 comments

> Netanyahu is a hard case. Here is what Aluf Benn wrote in Haaretz recently:

Maybe. Haaretz is on the Israeli left, and extremely critical of Netanyahu. That doesn't necessarily mean this is wrong - but it's like citing Fox's critique of Biden's motivations, or MSNBC's critique of Trump's motivations, as authoritative fact.

Even if what he's writing is true - this is probably a "new" motivation and not some underlying philosophy, IMO (unlike, say, Smotrich). Netanyahu has been in power for many years, and the most common criticism is that he doesn't actually do enough - he straddles the fence, refusing to commit to either (say) destroying Hamas or working with the PA - preferring to do as little as possible and play all angles, to stay in power. In our current situation you see a similar thing play out - he's refused to offer a "day after" plan for Gaza for a long time, and is certainly not publicly agreeing with the extremists who want to resettle Gaza - but also still working with them. Fence sitting, in other words.

That's why I believe he is more likely motivated by "staying in power" without actually having any underlying desire to make "greater Israel".

(Oh and I just now actually looked at the article, and it seems to support what I'm saying - that this is new behavior for Netanyahu, who was always considered risk-averse. I hope the article is wrong and Netanyahu is just fence-sitting as usual, for everyone's sake.)

> Israel has robust population growth. This is a long-term project. Similar to the settlements in the West Bank that stated 50 years ago and may finally get most of the West Bank annexed to Israel in the next four year.

I don't think that will happen, because most Israelis do not want to actually rule a people that hates them in an actual apartheid situation.

I sincerely hope I'm right. Netanyahu is certainly taking steps towards dictatorship, so who knows? Israel's democracy is relatively strong and robust, and I don't think the populace will let democracy fall, but again, who knows?

> I think I was judgement free. You are inferring that it is mark against Israel I am talking about geopolitical realities.

> If Israel's population is growing while both Syria and Lebanon are stagnant or shrinking and they are also failed/fragile states, it will be easy to expand into them and sustain that expansion.

Fair enough, I wasn't sure you were implying something negative. Still, actually expanding into Syria et all is completely outside the bounds of any normal discourse in Israel. I doubt you'd get even 5% of Israelis wanting to expand the borders significantly for growth reasons, only solidify borders for security reasons.

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bhouston1y ago

I would like to see a two-state solution, but I think we are much more likely to see annexation of the West Bank to Israel. There is some chance Donald Trump somehow becomes the peace maker of the century, but I wouldn't hold my breath. It is likely that much of Gaza is annexed for settlements as well unless something meaningfully changes.

We can check on these prediction in a year or so. Because we cannot prove anything about the future now.

I think we understand fully where we are each coming from.

edanmOP1y ago

Yes.

I don't think a two-state solution is likely, definitely not anytime soon. My one big hope is that, whether because of Trump's pressure or not, we manage to get a combined ceasefire + hostage deal + Saudi Arabia normalization + genuine path to a two-state solution (which the Saudis have said is a precondition for normalization).

Do I think it's likely? Not very. I don't think annexation of the West Bank is likely either. But as you said, who knows?

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