> Look at the recent semianalysis test to see how not ready AMD is, who would be the only company to have a real shot at this. Their HW on paper is better or equal, yet their software ecosystem is nowhere ready.

Reading that was kind of odd. It seems like their conclusion was that on paper AMD should be significantly less expensive and significantly faster, whereas in practice they're significantly less expensive and slightly slower because of unoptimized software, which actually seems like it'd still be a pretty good deal. Especially if the problem is the software, because then the hardware could get better with a software update after you buy it.

They also spend a lot of time complaining about how much trouble it is to install the experimental releases with some improvements that aren't in the stable branch yet, but then the performance difference was only big in a few cases and in general the experimental version was only a couple of percent faster, which either way should end up in the stable release in the near future.

And they do a lot of benchmarks on interconnect bandwidth which, fair enough, Nvidia currently has some hardware advantage. But that also mainly matters to the small handful of companies doing training for huge frontier models and not to the far larger number of people doing inference or training smaller models.

It feels like they were more frustrated because they were using the hardware as the problems were being solved rather than after, even though the software is making progress and many of the issues have already been resolved or are about to be.

I concur, they are virtually untouchable in this respect. No one else will throw a trillion or more into developing lower power faster silicon.