Now they just have to make it cheap.
Tell me, what has this industry been good at since its birth? Driving down the cost of compute and making things more efficient.
Are you seriously going to assume that won’t happen here?
Like they've been making it all this time? Cheaper and cheaper? Less data, less compute, fewer parameters, but the same, or improved performance? Not what we can observe.
>> Tell me, what has this industry been good at since its birth? Driving down the cost of compute and making things more efficient.
No, actually the cheaper compute gets the more of it they need to use or their progress stalls.
Yes exactly like they’ve been doing this whole time, with the cost of running each model massively dropping sometimes even rapidly after release.
No they haven't, these results do not generalize, as mentioned in the article:
"Furthermore, early data points suggest that the upcoming ARC-AGI-2 benchmark will still pose a significant challenge to o3, potentially reducing its score to under 30% even at high compute"
Meaning, they haven't solved AGI, and the task itself do not represent programming well, these model do not perform that well on engineering benchmarks.
But what they’ve done is show that progress isn’t slowing down. In fact, it looks like things are accelerating.
So sure, we’ll be splitting hairs for a while about when we reach AGI. But the point is that just yesterday people were still talking about a plateau.
They’ve been doing it literally this entire time. O3-mini according to the charts they’ve released is less expensive than o1 but performs better.
Costs have been falling to run these models precipitously.
This type of compute will be cheaper than Claude 3.5 within 2 years.
It's kinda nuts. Give these models tools to navigate and build on the internet and they'll be building companies and selling services.
