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0 pointspanabee1y ago0 comments

Nadella is a superb CEO, inarguably among the best of his generation. He believed in OpenAI when no one else did and deserves acclaim for this brilliant investment.

But his "below them, above them, around them" quote on OpenAI may haunt him in 2025/2026.

OAI or someone else will approach AGI-like capabilities (however nebulous the term), fostering the conditions to contest Microsoft's straitjacket.

Of course, OAI is hemorrhaging cash and may fail to create a sustainable business without GPU credits, but the possibility of OAI escaping Microsoft's grasp grows by the day.

Coupled with research and hardware trends, OAI's product strategy suggests the probability of a sustainable business within 1-3 years is far from certain but also higher than commonly believed.

If OAI becomes a $200b+ independent company, it would be against incredible odds given the intense competition and the Microsoft deal. PG's cannibal quote about Altman feels so apt.

It will be fascinating to see how this unfolds.

Congrats to OAI on yet another fantastic release.

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panabeeOP1y ago

To address the downvotes, this comment isn't guaranteeing OAI's success. It merely notes the remarkably elevated probability of OAI escaping Nadella's grip, which was nearly unfathomable 12 months ago.

Even after breaking free, OAI must still contend with intense competition at multiple layers, including UI, application, infrastructure, and research. Moreover, it may need to battle skilled and powerful incumbents in the enterprise space to sustain revenue growth.

While the outcome remains highly uncertain, the progress since the board fiasco last year is incredible.

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