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0 pointsagnosticmantis1y ago0 comments

I think the achievements in the past couple of years are astonishing, bordering on magic.

Yet, confidently promising AGI/self-driving/mars landing in the next couple of years over and over when the confidence is not justified makes you a conman by definition.

If the number 3 means nothing and can become 7 or 17 or 170 why keep pulling these timelines out of their overconfident asses?

Did we completely solve robotics or prove a longstanding theorem in 2020? No. So we should lose confidence in their baseless predictions.

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CamperBob21y ago· 2 in thread

Self-driving is not so much a technological problem as it is a political problem. We have built a network of roads that (self-evidently) can't be safely navigated by humans, so it's not fair to demand better performance of machines. At least, not as long as they have to share the road with us.

'AI' landings on Mars are the only kind of landings possible, due to latency. JPL indisputably pwned that problem long before anyone ever heard of OpenAI.

Theorem-proving seems to require a different toolset, so I don't know what made him promise that. Same with robotics, which is more an engineering problem than a comp-sci one.

philipwhiuk1y ago

The cars are still worse than humans.

CamperBob21y ago

On an uneven playing field, yes. If we'd designed our roads for the robots, the robots would do better.

In any case the robots are getting better. Are we?

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