I don’t need to finetune on five hundred pictures of rabbits to know one. I need one look and then I’ll know for life and can use this in unimaginable and endless variety.
This is a simplistic example which you can naturally pick apart but when you do I’ll provide another such example. My point is, learning at human (or even animal) speeds is definitely not solved and I’d say we are not even attempting that kind of learning yet. There is “in context learning” and “finetuning” and both are not going to result in human level intelligence judging from anything I’ve had access to.
I think you are anthropomorphizing the clever text randomization process. There is a bunch of information being garbled and returned in a semi-legible fashion and you imbue the process behind it with intelligence that I don’t think it has. All these models stumble over simple reasoning unless specifically trained for those specific types of problems. Planning is one particularly famous example.
Time will tell, but I’m not betting on LLMs. I think other forms of AI are needed. Ones that understand substance, modality, time and space and have working memory, not just the illusion of it.