There are a lot of different forms of Fama EMH, but even under very weak versions of it an uninformed speculator has the uniform geometric Brownian motion of holding an equity pretty much pegged at 0.5, expected value is par in the absence of an arbitrage opportunity. This is eliding fees and other friction, and eliding the market microstructure in a stand price-time precedence setting.

People (uninformed speculators) routinely think they have alpha by virtue of knowledge that was priced into a Citadel regression days, weeks, or months before they obtained it.

Uninformed speculators are almost by definition gamblers, and it’s pretty much a set cover between gamblers and arbitrageurs.

I wasn’t making fun of arbitrageurs.

P.S. Equities on Island and ARCA are decimalized on the consolidated tape, lit venues can’t have a spread less than one penny.