What we need is a protocol for social media that is widely adopted, like http did for small websites. This is where I think ATProto shines (Bluesky). Meta is testing out ActivityPub with Threads, but that apparently has discoverability limitations that ATProto addresses. I also like how they make the four core components modular (App, data host, algo feed, moderation)
As an aside, the bifurcation is already well on the way between authoritarian govts and the free world
In any case, Bluesky, Threads, and Mastodon/mainstream ActivityPub can all, with varying degrees of clunkiness, talk to each other.
We mostly ended up on Mastodon, I think. Personally I'm quite grateful that it's no longer professionally necessary to have an extra social media account.
Admirable for someone to try to quantify this, though. The Brazil mass migration to Bluesky seems to have broken through another floor for twitter's userbase, we're likely atop another inflection point right now as basically everything Musk touches turns into MAGA hats.
