> where the criminal did actually think it through
Until we can get into the criminal's brain we can't know the extent to which they thought it through.
We're just basically saying, "Anybody would know that they shouldn't kill somebody and it seems like they probably thought about killing this person before they did it."
I doubt there's going to be a stat that satisfies you here, but this one is interesting:
https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/murder-rates...
I haven't ever seen non-anecdotal evidence (flimsy or otherwise) that makes me think the death penalty acts as a deterrent.