Where is the number from? Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates China's military expenditure in 2022 to be $292.0 billion, trailing $877.0 billion of US. (source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_China))
There are not a lot more numbers (let alone numbers with sources) in the article. China has a lot of EV batteries because it is leading in promoting EV usage. It stockpiles a lot of agricultural products because, well, there are a lot of mouths to feed.
We have two broad choices
- brutally suppress development in these countries to remain 'top dog' or
- continue to build those international structures that were founded after the second world war - like the UN, that were designed to stop a repeat of WWII.
I fear the current approach of unpicking international norms and constraints in order to be able to do more of option 1 is leading us to WWWIII, not protecting us from it.
[1] If we don't take option 1 above.
However let's be clear there are hawks that see war as a legitimate tool, and they are the people that are trying to undermine international mechanisms that shackle the unilateral action of states - because they want to use that freedom.
Nothing wrong with staying strong - though it can create fear if you don't also talk - and indeed you could argue that's the approach China is taking - it's not been involved in countless foreign wars like the US over the last few decades, but it has been building capability - but wouldn't you given the aggressive behaviour of the US?
The question is - is the solution further escalation or some descalation?
- Mutually Assured Destruction risks
- No unmanageable effects of CO2-induced climate disruption
- Plenty of available oil to burn, with high EROEI
- Plentiful resources and enough growth all-round
- The UN and other such organisations
And in reality, there is enough energy, food and water to go around - the only thing that creates conflict over those is excessive fear or greed. I'm arguing you need these international organisms to create peer shame on the greed, and reduce the fear through regular contact and peaceful ways to reduce conflict.
Meanwhile PRC trade surplus huge -> PRC USD reserves huge -> USD is strong and commodity prices not too whack due to global slow down.
Why not stock up now? Eventual global recovery could trigger expensive commodity super cycle. Would it be helpful in war, sure. But PRC needs to build up nukes first, going to take a few years for 50% parity.
To allow any human living like we do in the west we need around 7 Earth, with only one inhabited, to have enough resources. Many live in big cities, with aging infra, we can't re-build in place, exposed more and more to various weather issues, to migrate they'll need new infra and an industrial system to build them and so on.
Most people do not realize but in the world we witness two evolutionary path: some (mostly from middle/middle-high classes) try/have left the city to being able to build new homes in places where today it's good to be for climate, hydro-geological stability, accessibility etc (just as a stupid example in the past we have chose many valley bottoms because even if sometimes there were floods there is also water, nowadays with pumped aqueduct we have no reasons to be there in less nice climate and under flood risks), actually implementing the green new deal. Others, essentially the world ruling classes in their respective countries are experimenting new smart cities, from Indonesia, try and failing to rebuild a sinking and unlivable Jakarta deep in the country, in altitude, to various IMF-founded states with Arkadag, Innopolis, Neom, Prospera, India with the government 100-smart cities projects and so on. Evidently ignoring the old Fordlandia lessons and the present Chinese ghost cities one.
The others sleep in the old settlements witnessing their slow degradation, thinking the first cohort as strange rich nerds who want to be kids for life, and ignoring the ruling class projects classify as sci-fi not so real narrative. Ruling class know that and decide to tell anyone how nice is not owning anything, so they could a day force people without anything in their dream prisons named smart cities, while some understand the move and also understand that there are not enough resources to build smart cities anyway so... Anyone who think expect the next world war for resources advancing with their own agenda.
Regarding Taiwan, China has been running simulations. Recently the US introduced a new aerial weapon to destroy Chinese naval ships, so I would say that the results of China's simulations are not looking too promising for China at this time, but things change.
Yeah, I know these types of articles are just kickbacks to the DoD, they'll always exist. It just seems like nobody actually cares anymore, when it used to be that at least a few people cared.
