I have no real horse in the race about export controls with China or elsewhere, but some notes: timelines matter here — rebuilding industrial capacity is .. not fast. Especially in the US today, much more safety-conscious, labor-rights oriented, etc, than when much of our on-shore industry got build in WW2 era.
To my mind, especially with US political cycles providing a fair amount of policy whiplash, it’s too early to see what total impact these rules have had — let’s check in on these numbers in 20 years. If export controls continued unabated over that period, I imagine we’ll have seen a fair amount of on-shoring of former supply chains.
That's been the trend across the past several administrations.
do note that the financial world is much more pessimistic and doom-gloom than the current geopolitical wars with USD/JPY carry trade unwinding, US treasury debts being dumped and USD loosing sheen slowly in global trades.
It is plausible that China is the economy in the global drivers seat now. If they are, then attempts to limit their economy will probably bounce off - unless violence is used, the laws of economics favour those who work hard, invest and are honest about what is affordable. The evidence suggests China does those things better than the US (although it is probably fairly knife-edge, both countries have out-of-control levels of government intervention in markets but at some point China will probably do something stupidly authoritarian).
This report is interesting in light of that frame.
Ultimately speaking the US dollar’s reserve status rests on the US economy’s productive capacity. Chinese dollar denominated exports are what’s propping up the dollar. Their accumulation of treasuries is merely a necessary consequence of the necessary accounting operations to dollar denominate those exports.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/start-de-dollarizatio...
Between how specialized a lot of the tech is and a lot of things only being worth doing if it is cheap, was this surprising?
Why would their be onshoring?
