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0 pointsracional1y ago0 comments

Instead of using Ukraine to give Russia a bloody nose we should have again fermented divisions between Russia and China.

Your reading of what's driving Western support for Ukraine is completely wrong here. They're not simply doing it to "give Russia a bloody nose" for its own sake. They certainly don't mind if that's what Russia gets out of it. But that's not the key objective in itself.

On the flip side: "fermenting divisions between Russia and China" is just fantasy, as at the moment U.S. is really quite inept in regard to such influence. It has no clue how to do that effectively (and any efforts it did take in that direction would most likely be moot and/or backfire).

I should note that I lament the cost of these conflicts to human lives on both sides and wish smarter populations governed by astute politicians would have found ways to successfully avoid war, perhaps at the cost of a multipolar world which we’re likely to get anyway.

Okay, multipolar world, whatever.

But what it really comes down to is this: the only way to have "avoided war" (after 2014) would have been to simply give Russia what it wanted -- recognized sovereignty over significant chunks of territory (most likely at least as much as it's sitting on now), combined with permanent limits on Ukraine's own sovereignty (in terms of its ability to enter treaties).

If you think this would have been (or still would be) an astute course of action -- you might as well come out an say so.

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cjbgkagh1y ago· 2 in thread

I think peace could have been bought at the cost of neutrality, so sovereignty yes. I’m sure Ukraine would have been far better off with that, and there are many hundred of thousands of men who definitely would be.

It is hard to discuss this with people because it appears to me that most people are divorced from reality of the war. The framing of it has been warped and anyone who strays from the NAFO line is somehow an apologist. I hate this war and I hate the wars that it seems we’re on the precipice of starting with China and Iran and world will be much worse off when that happens.

racionalOP1y ago

I think peace could have been bought at the cost of neutrality, so sovereignty yes.

It's possible of course, but it's also speculative, and the window for that option is long since closed -- once Putin grabbed the Crimea and then the LNR/DNR, the "neutrality" bid fell from the table.

In any case he's been quite consistent about maintaining whatever regions he's currently occupying (and likely then some, according to the most recent formulations).

So if we're to buy peace now by just giving him what he wants -- that (or some approximation thereof) is what he'll be demanding. In any case it seems extremely unlikely he'd accept a neutrality-only bid by this point.

cjbgkagh1y ago

* once Putin grabbed the Crimea and then the LNR/DNR, the "neutrality" bid fell from the table

For a while it looked like Ukraine was turning the tide and they were told then not to negotiate for peace because they didn't have to - wait for an even better negotiating position. So they're told don't negotiate when you're loosing and don't negotiate when you're winning which approximate boils down to don't negotiate. Many things are possible when the alternative is losing a hugely destructive war. I.e. these things were and still remain on the table. Sure, Ukraine's not getting their land back unless they win the war but how likely is that to happen anyway.

Knowing Ukraine before the war there was already a huge Ukraine vs Russia ethnic divide that was being made worse by the Ukrainian government passing anti-Russian laws. I see Putins objectives as bringing ethnic Russians back into the fold and establishing a buffer zone. I think if a real Russia-NATO conflict broke out Russia out of necessity would turn to nukes pretty quickly - so I see this Russia-Ukraine war as less of a war of a conquest and more of a way to avoid nuking their Russian Ukrainian cousins if a full scale Russia-NATO war was to break out. They would have less qualms nuking West Ukraine as there are fewer cousins in the west so that would be free to be part of NATO.

There is the premise that Russia would not honor such an agreement of neutrality and I don't agree with that premise for a raft of reasons. If the premise that an embolden Putin will go on a concurring rampage I would have to disagree with that as well for another raft of reasons.

I don't have time to go into the whole history of it now - but I think an outcome where Ukraine splits in two where West Ukraine is a neutralized entity or absorbed into their surrounding NATO countries would have been and is still possible. Yes that would mean NATO on Russia's boarder but there is already a huge NATO boarder on Russia - that wasn't the problem.

I was looking to move to Ukraine in 2020 because I think it's a lovely country and Lviv is a lovely city. Very cheap where I could exist cheaply and spend my time reading books. It's a very corrupt country which does keep prices down but makes business difficult - but since my source of money is foreign I could effectively hide my wealth and avoid attracting attention. I decided against it because I did expect this war to break out as people were not taking Russia's warnings seriously. They had a lot of 'fixer-upper' housing that looked like they were already bombed, the housing was cheap but the problem is if you turn up with a bunch of money to fix the housing you're going catch the attention of the corrupt mobsters. I think Lviv would be an even nicer city if governed by Poland as it has been before in the not so distant past.

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