Tbh, i have no idea which part you are attacking with the birthday attack in this specific context. It doesn't seem particularly relavent.
(At the risk of saying something stupid) - i was under the impression RSA did not use nonces, so i don't see how that is relavent for an rsa cert.
For an ecdsa cert, nonce reuse is pretty catastrophic. I fail to see how short lived certs help since the old certs don't magically disappear, they still exist and can be used in attacks even after being rotated.