The advantages just didn't outweigh the disadvantages in this scenario.
Usernames are public now.
Back then, your username was public, and your password was assumed cracked/public, within a designated time-frame.
Your analogy would hold if when your cert expires, everyone gets to spoof it consequence free.
Certificate expiration, and cryptographic key rotation in general, works and is useful.
It is extremely unlikely a modern certificate will be broken in the time horizon of a few years through a cryptography break.
All systems eventually fail, but i expect it will be several decades at the earliest before a modern certificate breaks from a crypto attack.
Keep in mind that md5 started to be warned against in 1996. It wasn't until 2012 that a malicious attack used md5's weakness. That is 16 years from warning to attack. At this stage we dont even know about any weaknesses about currently used crypto (except quantum stuff)
Rotating certificates is more about guarding against incorrectly issued and compromised certificates.
So it's essential that if/when a bad guy pops a single server that they don't get a secret that allows them to conduct further attacks against the site for some indefinite period into the future.
https://leahneukirchen.org/blog/archive/2019/10/ken-thompson...
[previous hn discussion]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21202905
It did not converged to secure state, it necessary converged to everyone creating some predictable password system.
Contrast that to the other examples you provided. All of them are typically valid for several years. In two of the cases, people are managing a limited number of pieces of plastic.