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0 pointsDylan168071y ago0 comments

Batteries do keep getting cheaper, and from what I've seen even at median they do better than 10 years, let alone at beat.

Though just to toss some numbers out, if you had to buy a $10k battery every 150k miles that's definitely affordable.

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asdff1y ago

The thing is with the used car market is that maintenance cost is not paid by all the owners. Its paid only by who happens to be holding the hot potato when the battery is screwed, and most people with means aren't holding a car to 150k miles, that's about how many miles an ICE car has in the maybe $5kish used range. The sort of person buying a $5k car can't afford a $10k battery. They might not have access to $10k on a line of credit either. The worst similar thing that could happen for an ICE car is a timing belt going before you replace it and screwing up the engine or the automatic transmission needing replace, both issues much less costly than a $10k battery but also costly enough that people sometimes walk away entirely from the car.

rurp1y ago

I feel like the battery cost issue is being hand-waved by too many people here. For most people driving a car with well over 100k miles, spending $10k to replace a battery is a total non-starter. In addition to batteries degrading, there's also the risk of an accident. Some crashes that would be fixable for an older ICE car will require replacing the battery in an EV at a cost far greater than the car would be worth, making it non-viable. The battery is a risk factor that many people already worried about their finances won't want to take on.

Dylan16807OP1y ago

> For most people driving a car with well over 100k miles, spending $10k to replace a battery is a total non-starter.

Well do the math with prices instead of miles.

If you think you need to replace the battery soon, and the EV is $8k cheaper, it's a tempting purchase. Just don't spend the $8k on something else.

If that's impossible because the battery car would have to go below free, then that could be a problem. But that's still way cheaper than EVs are right now. I wish we had that problem! And at that point in the future, the fix is cheaper batteries, and it will happen.

> Some crashes that would be fixable for an older ICE car will require replacing the battery in an EV at a cost far greater than the car would be worth, making it non-viable. The battery is a risk factor that many people already worried about their finances won't want to take on.

I don't think the difference between "4% chance it's totalled in the next few years" and "5% chance it's totalled in the next few years" is a deal breaker. And that math is affected by so many other model-specific things too...

Dylan16807OP1y ago

EV batteries don't tend to suddenly die, do they? You can negotiate a lower price for a weaker battery, and you don't have to replace it the moment it hits 80% capacity.

And we're currently talking about cars that are worth significantly more than $5k. An extra 30% to fix it up is very different from an extra 200%.

Clubber1y ago

A colleague of mine bought a Tesla. He was looking to trade it up for a newer model after a couple of years and it depreciated probably $30K (nearly half) if I recall correctly. He absolutely loves the car, but nobody wants to take on that type of depreciation hit.

Dylan16807OP1y ago

That's something worth nothing, but most of that is unrelated to the battery, and I don't see how it has anything to do with the rest of this comment thread.

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asdff1y ago

rurp1y ago

Dylan16807OP1y ago

> For most people driving a car with well over 100k miles, spending $10k to replace a battery is a total non-starter.

Well do the math with prices instead of miles.

If you think you need to replace the battery soon, and the EV is $8k cheaper, it's a tempting purchase. Just don't spend the $8k on something else.

Dylan16807OP1y ago

EV batteries don't tend to suddenly die, do they? You can negotiate a lower price for a weaker battery, and you don't have to replace it the moment it hits 80% capacity.

And we're currently talking about cars that are worth significantly more than $5k. An extra 30% to fix it up is very different from an extra 200%.

Clubber1y ago

Dylan16807OP1y ago

That's something worth nothing, but most of that is unrelated to the battery, and I don't see how it has anything to do with the rest of this comment thread.

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j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse