> Instead, try to realize that a broad consensus forming means you actually hold heterodox opinions, and if you think you have a good basis for them that’s fine, but if the foundation for your point that everyone in the world is too stupid to see what’s REALLY going on then maybe your opinions aren’t as reasoned as you think they are.

I haven't even formed much of an opinion either way, yet. Sure, I have doubt, but that's more of a default than something I reasoned myself into. I'm saying it's just way too early to make statements either way about the future of LLMs and AI that are anything beyond wild guesses. "This time it's different, it's fundamentally transformative and will obviously change the world" is a religious statement when made this early.