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0 pointsthrowaway4good1y ago0 comments

ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future.

However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools and final products are never exported.

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gravescale1y ago

> rely so much on imports

Seriously, try to design anything non-trivial without a TI part anywhere. Even in China, foreign brands are everywhere in electronics, and much of it is imported.

There's a lot of scope left for China to penetrate the "low end" semiconductor (and other electronic parts) market as well.

schmidtleonard1y ago

5 years ago? Yes. Today? I dunno, the LCSC catalogues have been moving fast.

phkahler1y ago

>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China.

Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.

jpgvm1y ago

Or they skip EUV all together and go straight to xray.

IMO that is the real threat to both ASML and the current Western supply chain. By forcing China out you make it very likely they will choose to leap-frog instead of try play catch-up. They did it with EVs there is a very good chance they do it with semiconductors also.

impossiblefork1y ago

Surely it would damage the resist?

1 more reply

seanmcdirmid1y ago

Or they might want to keep it under lock and key for a competitive and national security advantage.

Dalewyn1y ago

There are two schools of philosophy to consider here:

* You keep your secret sauce secret and take over the world with subsequent products.

* You sell your secret sauce to everyone and take over the world becoming the sole source of secret sauce.

So far, China has had resounding success with the latter.

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mschuster911y ago

They might want to sell... but who might (want to) buy, outside of Russia and maybe India? The Western world is already decoupling from China and I think it's completely infeasible that anyone wants to create new ties to China.

gravescale1y ago

Anyone is a stretch, not everyone is so keen to take the US side in the trade war at their own expense. South American and African trade is still pretty brisk and growing as far as I know. Mostly they don't have the possibility of onshoring industries that they didn't have in the first place, as opposed to the West where it's more like attempting to re-shore previously-discarded capability. So they don't really have a horse in the race, they're going to be importing anyway.

"Anyone planning a major semiconductor fab in the 2020s", then quite probably, yes.

Dalewyn1y ago

Everyone wants to do business with China, because China has money (which we gave them) and everyone wants that money (which will ultimately go back to them with change and interest).

Lest we forget, Japan and South Korea are mulling a free trade agreement[1] with China.

Anyone following US-led sanctions against China are doing so dragging their feet and groaning in annoyance.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Japan%E2%80%93So...

throwaway4goodOP1y ago

Yeah. It will be interesting the day that Intel starts buying SSMB EUVL from Huawei. :-D

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 comments

gravescale1y ago

> rely so much on imports

Seriously, try to design anything non-trivial without a TI part anywhere. Even in China, foreign brands are everywhere in electronics, and much of it is imported.

There's a lot of scope left for China to penetrate the "low end" semiconductor (and other electronic parts) market as well.

schmidtleonard1y ago

5 years ago? Yes. Today? I dunno, the LCSC catalogues have been moving fast.

phkahler1y ago

>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China.

Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.

jpgvm1y ago

Or they skip EUV all together and go straight to xray.

impossiblefork1y ago

Surely it would damage the resist?

1 more reply

seanmcdirmid1y ago

Or they might want to keep it under lock and key for a competitive and national security advantage.

Dalewyn1y ago

There are two schools of philosophy to consider here:

* You keep your secret sauce secret and take over the world with subsequent products.

* You sell your secret sauce to everyone and take over the world becoming the sole source of secret sauce.

So far, China has had resounding success with the latter.

1 more reply

mschuster911y ago

gravescale1y ago

"Anyone planning a major semiconductor fab in the 2020s", then quite probably, yes.

Dalewyn1y ago

Everyone wants to do business with China, because China has money (which we gave them) and everyone wants that money (which will ultimately go back to them with change and interest).

Lest we forget, Japan and South Korea are mulling a free trade agreement[1] with China.

Anyone following US-led sanctions against China are doing so dragging their feet and groaning in annoyance.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Japan%E2%80%93So...

throwaway4goodOP1y ago

Yeah. It will be interesting the day that Intel starts buying SSMB EUVL from Huawei. :-D

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse