China are, in a disturbingly literal sense, doing dress rehearsals for a Taiwan invasion. As far as I know (not speaking Chinese) their rhetoric has been quite clear that they see military invasion as an option on this topic. They're probably going to be a US-calibre military superpower in short order given their economic and manufacturing foundations.

I doubt your answer will make a compelling case to their ears.

> There is no such thing as "unprovoked US aggression", it's all quite predictable decades ahead

That is suspect:

* It almost rejects the entire concept of unprovoked aggression. Although de-facto it is, damaging or obstructing the US's commercial interests isn't supposed to be considered a military provocation.

* It is at odds with a country like the US that is continuously in a state of conflict because of their commercial interests. On balance they're probably the most militarily aggressive country in existence right now. That is a lot of implicit provocation!

> China, Iran, Russia, NK, Cuba etc instead are still guided by nationalist impulses, which unfortunately can result in irrational decisions (Ukraine, Taiwan)

I can't resist a jab at this one. Thank goodness the rationalists prevailed on topics like Iraq and Afghanistan, leading to glorious success, prosperity and other good outcomes!