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0 pointselzbardico2y ago0 comments

Oil is what matters less here. The point is that the ability of the US to refinance its debt and support the massive consumption levels of the American people through cheap imports and massive trade deficits rely on a healthy global demand for the USD.

The Us is now a massive producer of oil, but it is not a massive net exporter of it, because it consumes a lot. So, when the big net exporters of oil decide to accept other things in payment in lieu of the USD it inevitably has a depressing effect on the global demand for the dollar.

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6 comments · 2 top-level

JumpCrisscross2y ago· 3 in thread

> it is not a massive net exporter of it, because it consumes a lot

Wrong [1]. We are the world's largest producer and 4th-largest exporter, halfway to Saudi Arabia and three quarters to Russia.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_expor...

elzbardicoOP2y ago

I said net exporter, not just merely exporter. And NO, the US is not a net exporter of oil. Yes, the US export around 3.6M bbl/d in 2022. But, it imported around 6.3M bbl/day in the same year. So, it was a net importer.

The reason why this happens I leave as an exercise for the reader that is so gung-ho in calling others wrong.

JumpCrisscross2y ago

> Yes, the US export around 3.6M bbl/d in 2022. But, it imported around 6.3M bbl/day in the same year

You’re wrong, as the other comment points out. But these numbers are so wildly wrong that I’m curious for your source.

(8.5mm b/d in vs 10.15mm b.d out [1] in 2023. If we limit ourselves to crude oil, it's 4.1mm b/d out [2] vs hundreds of thousands in [3]. A literal order of magnitude.)

[1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727

[2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584

[3] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...

1 more reply

philipkglass2y ago

The US is currently a net exporter of oil, and it was in 2022 as well:

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...

Note that this is a "net imports" graph where values below 0 indicate net exports. The graph shows that the last year where the US was a net importer was 2019.

1 more reply

DrFalkyn2y ago· 1 in thread

Sure they can accept whatever currency they want

Which they will then trade for USD and stash in banks or buy stuff from the US

elzbardicoOP2y ago

If you don't need the USD do buy oil, industrial goods, services and commodities, why would you trade all your surplus for USD?

Every billateral trade you do in another currency other than the US, means your demand for dollars has decreased.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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6 comments · 2 top-level

JumpCrisscross2y ago· 3 in thread

> it is not a massive net exporter of it, because it consumes a lot

Wrong [1]. We are the world's largest producer and 4th-largest exporter, halfway to Saudi Arabia and three quarters to Russia.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_expor...

elzbardicoOP2y ago

The reason why this happens I leave as an exercise for the reader that is so gung-ho in calling others wrong.

JumpCrisscross2y ago

> Yes, the US export around 3.6M bbl/d in 2022. But, it imported around 6.3M bbl/day in the same year

You’re wrong, as the other comment points out. But these numbers are so wildly wrong that I’m curious for your source.

(8.5mm b/d in vs 10.15mm b.d out [1] in 2023. If we limit ourselves to crude oil, it's 4.1mm b/d out [2] vs hundreds of thousands in [3]. A literal order of magnitude.)

[1] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727

[2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584

[3] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...

1 more reply

philipkglass2y ago

The US is currently a net exporter of oil, and it was in 2022 as well:

U.S. Net Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...

Note that this is a "net imports" graph where values below 0 indicate net exports. The graph shows that the last year where the US was a net importer was 2019.

1 more reply

DrFalkyn2y ago· 1 in thread

Sure they can accept whatever currency they want

Which they will then trade for USD and stash in banks or buy stuff from the US

elzbardicoOP2y ago

If you don't need the USD do buy oil, industrial goods, services and commodities, why would you trade all your surplus for USD?

Every billateral trade you do in another currency other than the US, means your demand for dollars has decreased.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse