The vast majority of ARM licensees aren't doing anything transformative, that's for sure. But would something like the M1 - bringing ARM to the desktop when all past attempts have failed - have been considered transformative?

The question of what constitutes a "large market effect" is a big one...if I make a chip to serve as a controller in my brand of hard drives, is that a large market effect? ARM loses out on a few pennies per drive or something.

And I'd dispute the characterization of micro-architecture design as "insubstantial". Not accusing you of this, but this really has been the most frustrating thing about RISC-V - software engineers who don't know anything about CPU design comparing it to Linux when really it's more like POSIX or, yes, the Java class library. The insides of microcomputer CPUs haven't really resembled their interfaces very much since the early 80s - even the 68000, a consumer-grade CPU that's 45 years old (!) was designed so that the microcode engine that drove it could be used to implement an array of instruction sets. Any useful implementation of a CPU has an enormous number of internal details that aren't implied by the ISA.