Why not roll the die?
Personally I'd rather not get a raise at 2% inflation than a 3% raise at 6% inflation, and I don't think that's unreasonably irrational?
In an economy with borrowing, nothing. Deflation increases the real debt burden.
More pointedly: price levels are imaginary. The focus should be on real wages.
It’s also part of the Fed’s mandate to maintain employment[4].
Between these factors, it’s more likely rates will be cut.
EDIT: Sources
0. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
1. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014
2. This is part of the conjecture that MMT makes, but never pans out in real life. See http://www.thomaspalley.com/docs/articles/macro_theory/mmt_r...
3. https://www.lynalden.com/inflation-vs-interest-rates/
4. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100715/break...
Not how the Fed works. (And given recent deficits, the Congress isn’t worried.)
> Keeping rates high on the government’s debt may increase inflation
Nope. This is Erdoganomics.
The multiplier effect from credit contraction more than outweighs the new money of marginally-higher rates.
> it’s more likely rates will be cut
This has been Silicon Valley’s hot take since rates rose. Like yes, eventually they’ll have to come down. (There isn’t much room for them to go up.) But the Fed is far from constrained.
Yes I’m aware. It’s the battle between monetary and fiscal policy. So far fiscal policy is winning.
> The multiplier effect from credit contraction more than outweighs the new money of marginally-higher rates.
Feel free to back that up with a source. I’ve updated my comment with mine.
Yup, the economy is cyclical, so they'll come down of course. But they can go way higher, too.
Consider this: From 1978 to 1985 (7 years), the federal funds rate was never below 8%, and from 1969 to 1991 (that's 22 years), it only dropped below 6% during the recoveries from recessions.
I think the last 20 years of ZIRP have hoodwinked a lot of people into believing that sub-5% rates are normal. All the people saying rates "have" to come down and that they will therefore have the option to refinance their mortgages are smoking a whole pipe full of copium.
There are structural reasons to think that inflation is baked in for the next decade, and it would be not at all surprising if a mortgage opened today is paid off before rates again drop below 5%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/24/how-much-money-americans-hav...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/01/14/average-net-...
