What I can say is, I think there’s a very important disagreement here and it divides nerds into two camps. The first think LLMs can reason, the second don’t.

It’s very important to resolve this debate, because if the former are correct then we are likely very close to AGI historically speaking (<10 years). If not, then this is just a stepwise improvement and we will now plateaux until the next level of sophistication of model or computer power etc is achieved.

I think a lot of very smart people are in the second camp. But they are biased by their overestimation of human cognition. And that bias might be causing them to misjudge the most important innovation in history. An innovation that will certainly be more impactful than the steam engine and may be more dangerous than the atomic bomb.

We should really resolve this argument asap so we can all either breathe a sigh of relief or start taking the situation very very seriously.