Why would reasoning have plateau’d?

I think reasoning ability is not the largest bottleneck for improvement in usefulness right now. Cost is a bigger one IMO.

Running these models as agents is hella expensive, and agents or agent-like recurrent reasoning (like humans do) is the key to improved performance if you look at any type of human intelligence.

Single-shot performance only gets you so far.

For example- If it can write code 90% of the way, and then debug in a loop, it’d be much more performant than any single shot algorithm.

And OpenAI has these huge models in their basement probably. But they might not be much more useful than GPT-4 when used as single-shot. I mean, what could it do what we can’t do today with gpt-4?

It’s agents and recurrent reasoning we need for more usefulness.

At least- That’s my humble opinion as an amateur neuroscientist that plays around with these models.

Ya so sad that OpenAI isn't more Open imagine if OpenAI was still sharing their thought processes and papers with the overall commity, really wish we saw collaborations between OpenAI and Meta for instance to really have helped push the open source arena further ahead, i love that their latest models are so great but the fact they aren't helping the Open source arena to progress is sad. Imagine how far we'd be if OpenAI was still as open as they once were and we saw collaborations betweeen Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic all working and sharing growth and tech to reduce double work and help each other not go down failed paths.

Reliable agents in diverse domains need better reasoning ability and fewer hallucinations. If the rumored GPT-5 and Q* capabilities are true, such agents could become available soon after it’s launched.

This isn't really new tech, it's just an async agent in front of a multimodal model. It seems from the demo that the improvements have been in response latency and audio generation. Still, it looks like they're building a solid product, which has been their big issue so far.