undefined | Better HN

0 pointsbdjsiqoocwk1y ago0 comments

What a bunch of nonsense.

If you believe that in an infinite time scale the spike of a "random walk martingale" will exceed every level, then you also believe that you'll go bankrupt even if you don't sell insurance at break even. Maybe mathematically incorrect, but entirely irrelevant in the real world.

IN ADDITION, the money that insurers make isn't just the underwriting profit but also the investment profit. You you're talking twice as much shit as the average HN commenter.

0 comments

tomp1y ago

I don’t ”believe” in math, I can prove it.

If you don’t sell at break even, it’s not a martingale, so the Law doesn’t apply.

bdjsiqoocwkOP1y ago

You can prove mathematical propositions, you obviously can't make truthful conclusions about insurance. And that's really the crucial parts. Anyone can make prove mathematical statements.

Reminds of the guy who lost his keys in the darkness and was looking for the keys under the lamp because that's where he can see. Likewise, you're using your tools and hoping that the tools have some connection to real life.

You sound like one of those "that's all good in practice but it would never work in theory" type of people.

tomp1y ago

The real world is much more complicated that mathematical models.

But if your business goes bankrupt with probability 100% with even a simplified mathematical model, I wouldn't want to invest in it.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

0 pointsbdjsiqoocwk1y ago0 comments

What a bunch of nonsense.

IN ADDITION, the money that insurers make isn't just the underwriting profit but also the investment profit. You you're talking twice as much shit as the average HN commenter.

0 comments

tomp1y ago

I don’t ”believe” in math, I can prove it.

If you don’t sell at break even, it’s not a martingale, so the Law doesn’t apply.

bdjsiqoocwkOP1y ago

You can prove mathematical propositions, you obviously can't make truthful conclusions about insurance. And that's really the crucial parts. Anyone can make prove mathematical statements.

You sound like one of those "that's all good in practice but it would never work in theory" type of people.

tomp1y ago

The real world is much more complicated that mathematical models.

But if your business goes bankrupt with probability 100% with even a simplified mathematical model, I wouldn't want to invest in it.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse