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0 pointstmnvix2y ago0 comments

Politically and diplomatically, it could be argued Hamas have been considerably strengthened. They certainly think so.

It seems to me that Israel's overall position - politically, diplomatically, and in terms of physical security - has become much worse since the October 7 attack and it has been their own actions that are responsible for the change. A different response should have seen them politically and diplomatically strengthened.

I understand the emotive reasons for not doing so, but I think most people would consider that Israel has bungled their response to October 7.

I would call this attack on Gaza a total failure. If nothing else a failure of humanity.

It's looking more and more like the 'winners' in this situation are Hamas and the losers are the Israeli government, the US government, and the Israeli and Palestinian people.

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JumpCrisscross2y ago· 2 in thread

> Politically and diplomatically, it could be argued Hamas have been considerably strengthened. They certainly think so.

That's delusional. Hamas’ operational capabilities have been highly diminished. Their leadership is in exile. It looks increasingly likely that their ground forces will be destroyed. While they've found sympathy among the Arab population, it's notable that not a single government--outside Iran--has offered to materially support them. And even Iran is starting to be constrained in its regional capabilities.

Israel isn’t winning. But Hamas isn’t either.

tmnvixOP2y ago

Abraham accords being scuppered, Houthis applying international pressure on their behalf, and most importantly multiple big cases brought against Israel at the ICJ. Not to mention the considerable loss of standing Israel has suffered amongst regular people in just about any country you care to name.

Compare this to the situation prior to October 7.

With regard to your belief that it looks like Hamas ground forces will be destroyed, I doubt this very much. All indications are that this is not happening. Every area that Israel claims to have 'cleared' they are having to return to. Israel claims to have killed some 9000 Hamas militants, but with fatalities of around 32,000 in Gaza so far this would mean almost every one of those fatalities that was not a woman or child was a militant. That's beyond unlikely.

This attack on Gaza will be wound back long before Hamas is eradicated (and this includes the militant wing). When that happens Hamas will emerge in a better position than prior to October 7 and Israel will be in a worse position.

Hamas' stated objective of exposing Israel is being achieved. The Israeli government has been extremely naive and short sighted in this regard.

JumpCrisscross2y ago

> Houthis applying international pressure on their behalf

Right. This is the best support Hamas could muster. Unguided pot shots. That’s the point. Nobody real put anything at risk except a proxy force in Yemen.

> attack on Gaza will be wound back long before Hamas is eradicated (and this includes the militant wing)

Doubtful but plausible. That doesn’t bring back the military infrastructure. They’re highly degraded, from the loss of their tunnels to operational supremacy. It’s also naive to imagine Israel isn’t placing surveillance infrastructure that will take Gazans decades to debug.

> Israeli government has been extremely naive and short sighted

Agree. But it doesn’t look like Hamas will win anything. They’ll get a minor PR win, maybe even an ICJ ruling, and their delegates will complain comfortably from Doha for the rest of their careers. But their days as a relevant fighting force appear numbered, though as you say, that’s not a given.

> Hamas' stated objective of exposing Israel

Winning sympathy while losing ground, infrastructure and fighting forces is a terrible trade. (It’s also one virtually everyone who loses a war gets as a consolation prize.)

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YeGoblynQueenne2y ago

I'm not sure Hamas has anything left to win. Gaza is in ruins. If things go on the way they are for very much longer, there won't even be left any Palestinians in Gaza, only Hamas in its tunnels. The lords of the underground... buried under the rubble. That's not a vision of victory.

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