If you're cheating your own rough estimate, what are you even doing?
Custom cheats and large language model predictors are outside the realm of "most compression methods".
My thought is that lots of things you might want to compress are pretty small, so if you toss a 200KB not-ultra-size-optimized decompressor on top you get a very misleading number. Not having it will tend to understate a bit, but also current compression algorithms are far from perfect so that counterbalances the effect.
I think I disagree with you about how big a blob of text is getting compressed in "most cases". (If we look at photographs or videos then it works better, but we still want to arrange a minimal decompressor instead of grabbing a typical implementation. And the lossy/lossless factor makes the entire thing far more complicated.)