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0 pointsCuriouslyC2y ago0 comments

While that's a true story today, Satya is brutally outplaying Google, Amazon is a utility company and Apple's domain is hardware and will likely continue to be. Mark is making some good strategic plays to keep the field even, but Microsoft really is poised to clean up as AI takes off.

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danpalmer2y ago· 3 in thread

Microsoft is poised to do well, sure, but they're currently beholden to Nvidia for hardware and OpenAI for models, and their main surface area for products is Office, Azure, and to a lesser extent, Outlook.

Comparatively, Google controls their hardware, Google builds their models, and Google has Search, Workspace, Gmail, Android, Cloud, and YouTube, all of which could have significant AI investments.

I'm not saying Satya isn't doing a great job, he really is, and I have many criticisms of Google's approach, but I do think Google is at least equally well positioned, and possibly better positioned.

CuriouslyCOP2y ago

I agree that TPUs are a huge competitive edge. That and huggingface integration is going to let google do very well serving open models until other competitive hardware comes online. The problem is that I think the window to capitalize on TPUs isn't going to be long enough to cement any sort of dominance, and they're fumbling so badly now that I don't have faith in the leadership.

feyman_r2y ago

Outlook is a part of Office. Also, I’m not sure ‘vertical integration’ is the only way to succeed at business. Google is trying to do that here - with a fast-changing landscape, one would want to use the best downstream provider.

danpalmer2y ago

I was trying to think of user-perceived surfaces. I'd expect most Outlook.com users are not office users, as they originated as Hotmail or MSN users.

One would want to use the "best" downstream provider, but part of being best is the cost. Would you accept a chip that's 30% slower and 80% cheaper? Yeah probably, especially if you're serving at scale to non-paying traffic. I don't think Google/Amazon/MS need to make chips as fast as Nvidia, or as scalable, as long as they work out for serving costs at scale and have the enabling technology (mostly about sufficient memory).

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