I mean, the main argument against their thesis is just that most people will pay more for services than they otherwise would have and be poorer, but not collapse. On the other hand, the trouble in the mid-west and rustbelt we are seeing more and more bailouts on infrastructure (the $1B Blatnik bridge fix, for example, will be paid for by the US Gov't), while also seeing more deferred maintenance.
The good news is that, again, this is falsifiable, and I'm an empiricist. If Phoenix doesn't can weather their future lack of growth without adding density, then I'll wave the white flag.
