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0 pointszamadatix2y ago0 comments

Random (in statistics) means you cannot conclude the next value ahead of time. That's different than saying the next value is uniformly likely to be any value and the two concepts are actually orthogonal. E.g. If I had a bag with 99 red balls and 1 blue ball then randomly selected one you may assume there is a high chance there will be a red ball, based on the odds, but you aren't able to actually know which ball will be next until it's drawn.

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lazide2y ago

The second pick will have better odds of a blue ball, assuming the first one picked was red and the ball was not put back however - correct?

Even more so if you’ve gone 50 picks like that, and are now down to 49 red balls and one blue ball.

That is what card counting helps you with - knowing the odds based on your current state, as compared to the initial state.

zamadatixOP2y ago

Depends if the balls are placed back or not. Similar to cards, any game which never replenishes the deck and lets you draw all the cards down to the last one lets the last pick (but not the prior ones) be non-random.

lazide2y ago

I literally stated ‘if the balls don’t get put back’.

And the last card was still random, btw. But can be guessed now with perfect precision due to the process of elimination.

Random at shuffle doesn’t mean unguessable or unpredictable as the game goes on.

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hinkley2y ago

But if you’re given a double or nothing bet option on each draw, you know there’s a range of strategies that vary from maximum winnings, to most likely winnings. You want a good story you go for max. You need a few thousand to head off a problem with your car, you bet a different way.

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0 pointszamadatix2y ago0 comments

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lazide2y ago

The second pick will have better odds of a blue ball, assuming the first one picked was red and the ball was not put back however - correct?

Even more so if you’ve gone 50 picks like that, and are now down to 49 red balls and one blue ball.

That is what card counting helps you with - knowing the odds based on your current state, as compared to the initial state.

zamadatixOP2y ago

lazide2y ago

I literally stated ‘if the balls don’t get put back’.

And the last card was still random, btw. But can be guessed now with perfect precision due to the process of elimination.

Random at shuffle doesn’t mean unguessable or unpredictable as the game goes on.

1 more reply

hinkley2y ago

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