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0 pointsmaratc2y ago0 comments

Once Putin is gone, someone else is going to take his place. There won't be much difference between Putin and the other guy, and that (small) difference may be for the better or it may be for the worse.

Putin is not in that place because he's somehow an extremely talented (or extremely lucky) person. Putin is there because that's what most of the Russian elite wants. Once he's gone, the Russian elite will put there somebody else who will fit them the most. It would not be reasonable to expect any drastic difference given the unchanging circumstances.

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6 comments · 2 top-level

sidibe2y ago· 2 in thread

I think this paints a picture of oligarchy that might have been true when he first came to power but the tail is now wagging the dog. In fact it's not even the same dog the elites and billionaires of Russia now are childhood friends of Putin, people who worked with him in KGB or St Petersburg mayors office, the chef at a restaurant he frequented (RIP), etc.

I'm sure any of the original Russian elites left that weren't brought in by Putin regret him being put there would secretly love to see him gone. That doesn't mean they wouldn't end up in the same situation, countries where nobody trusts each other just waiting for the next dictator hard to get out of that cycle

maratcOP2y ago

> I'm sure any of the original Russian elites left that weren't brought in by Putin regret him being put there would secretly love to see him gone

Any elites that are there since before Putin, of whom there was notably more in 2012, could simply nominate someone else for the elections in 2012, or failing that, just keep that Medvedev guy for the second term. For some reason, they decided to move Medvedev away and put Putin back.

I am afraid that the set "any of the original Russian elites... that weren't brought in by Putin [and] regret him being put there" is an empty one.

chupasaurus2y ago

> For some reason

The whole reason was to reset the counter of 2 consequent terms of presidency without touching the constitution since "The Party" didn't have 2/3 of parliament to be sure.

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The_Colonel2y ago· 2 in thread

Transition of power is notoriously difficult in authoritarian systems and Putin is more of an exception rather than a normal occurence. Only Stalin had this level of control in Russia in the past 100 years. Do you remember who came after Stalin? Georgy Malenkov, but even I had to google his name, he didn't stay there for long. Even (the better known) Khruschev wasn't a strong ruler and got ousted in a couple of years.

maratcOP2y ago

I think a good proxy for russian situation would be China. They have changed the guy a couple of times in the last 30 years but the policy stayed the same. The only things that can bring a change are either a coup (not likely in Russia) or a black horse like Gorbachev.

I also don’t think that reductio ad Stalinum is in place here. Putin got a full blessing from the retiring guy, and by that proxy from the elites as well. It’s not that he deposed the king in a coup d’etat or something.

The_Colonel2y ago

China used to be like post-Stalin USSR - there's a leader, but also some intra-party pluralism.

Putin's Russia is nothing like that and Xi's China is leaving that pattern as well. Putin is an absolutist leader with no checks in place.

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6 comments · 2 top-level

sidibe2y ago· 2 in thread

maratcOP2y ago

> I'm sure any of the original Russian elites left that weren't brought in by Putin regret him being put there would secretly love to see him gone

I am afraid that the set "any of the original Russian elites... that weren't brought in by Putin [and] regret him being put there" is an empty one.

chupasaurus2y ago

> For some reason

The whole reason was to reset the counter of 2 consequent terms of presidency without touching the constitution since "The Party" didn't have 2/3 of parliament to be sure.

1 more reply

The_Colonel2y ago· 2 in thread

maratcOP2y ago

The_Colonel2y ago

China used to be like post-Stalin USSR - there's a leader, but also some intra-party pluralism.

Putin's Russia is nothing like that and Xi's China is leaving that pattern as well. Putin is an absolutist leader with no checks in place.

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse