>this is all based off estimates and extrapolations

This is not exactly rocket science. The supply is largely fixed (a few thousand a year), and the pending inventory is ~1M (based on published data). Barring legislative change, the extrapolation, even if off by several factors, moves the dates in the range of years or decades. There is no meaningful difference once you are past a few decades. At that point, the worker is at the end of the career and unless (s)he gets residency through some other path, the original work path is moot.

>wait times of between about 8 and 12 years since 2014

This is not a fixed delta. It was close to 10 years for someone in 2010; it's not 10 years if you file today - it is several decades. Demand has vastly outpaced supply.

> EB-1 visas have priority dates in 2020.

Very few people qualify for an EB-1. They are far out of reach for most people.