Exactly.

How likely do you think this will happen?

I estimate the chance of this happening after the release of GPT-5: 50%. Chance of this happening after GPT-6 is released: 90%.

You painted a pretty bleak picture of what might happen. I tend to agree with your assessment, but there's a chance that the total automation of everything will make things so cheap that quality of life will actually improve for majority of humankind. In any case, we still have a few years to prepare for this disruption.

p.s. I'm not sure why people are talking about software engineering as some sort of a subtle skill that is hard to automate. It's quite likely that GPT-5 will be able to talk to my boss, colleagues, and any other other stakeholders to understand what needs to be done, access all relevant information, iterate on requirements, ask for help, and problem solve, and it will do so better than me, or anyone else in this thread. Even if GPT-5 is not quite there yet, it's almost guaranteed that GPT-6 will be (barring some unlikely global catastrophic events preventing further technological progress). At that point, there will be no reason for my boss to employ me, or for his boss to employ him, and so on.