This is an unsophisticated view because it looks at a risk/reward scenario and assigns zero value to the risk.
The risk has value - regardless of the success, or reward.
Put another way: you don't get to discount the risk to zero when it results in a large reward.
Entities that took no risks and received enormous rewards (like President George W. Bush involvement in the Texas Rangers[1]) are probably quite pleased that you ignore them and focus on artists that sacrifice traditional life scripts (an enormous risk) and, very rarely, achieve great success.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_life_of_George_W....
