The matter of the leaks were very “Snowdeny” in that it’s possibly that parts of our own government and our secret police share all Danish internet traffic with the NSA, who then in tern share information with our secret police. Which meant that our secret police could do surveillance on us as citizens through a legal loophole, as they aren’t allowed to do they directly, but are allowed to share surveillance information with the NSA. Part of this information comes from the giant American tech companies as well. Despite their promises to not share the data they keep for you. I know it’s sort of crackpot sounding, but between echelon, Snowden and the ridiculous amounts of scandals, I think it’s safe to assume that the American military wants in on LLMs and monitor all the inputs people put into ChatGPT and similar. So for that reason alone they’d want in on things.
Then there is how the war in Ukraine has shown how cheap drones are vital in modern warfare, and right now, they need to be manually controlled. But what if they didn’t? Maybe that’s not obtainable, but maybe it is.
Then there is all the other reasons you and I can’t think of. So even if they don’t believe it’s eventually going to lead to an AGI, or whatever else the hype wants, they’re still going to be interested in technology that’s already used by so many people and organisations around the globe.
For instance, neither of your examples - surveillance or automated drones - has anything to do with AGI. They don't need LLMs to do mass digital surveillance; they already do that and were doing it for decades before LLMs were a twinkle in anyone's eye. Sure, they'll try to tap into the user data generated by chatgpt etc. (and likely succeed), but that's not a different capability than what they're already doing. And automating drones - which, by the way, this is not future technology as you seem to imply, it's here today - is a special purpose ML system, that maybe benefits from incorporating an LLM somewhere, but certainly isn't pinging the chatgpt api!
But sure, you're exactly right at the end, I have no idea whether they see other angles on this that are new and promising. That's why I asked the question, I'm very curious whether there are any real indications thus far that militaries think the big public LLM models will be useful enough to them that they'll want to put a thumb on the scale to favor the companies running them over the companies that make their bucks on copyrighted content.
I think there's a strong argument that they should be thinking in those terms, but I'm a lot less convinced that they do usually think in that way.
Or more charitably, they have the responsibility to balance current interests against future interests. And this isn't just a tricky thing for democracies, dictators also have to strike this same balance, just with different trade offs.
But in this case, for the US, it honestly isn't clear to me that policy makers should favor the AI side of this tussle. I think culture has been among the, if not the very, most important export of the US for nearly a century, and I think favorable copyright treatment has been at least part of the story with that.
Maybe that whole landscape is different now in a way that makes that whole model obsolete, but I think it's an open question at least.
What it seems to me from the milieu of everything I've read and heard (that is: I can't cite examples, this is an aggregate developed from hundreds of articles and podcasts etc.) is that there is already an "AI" arms race underway, but that it has more to do with specialized ML systems than with consumer LLMs.
But I'm not really in the loop, and maybe OpenAI really is more important to the US DoD than Disney (as a stand-in for big copyright-based businesses generally) is to the politicians they donate to. But I dunno! That's why I asked the question :)
I would be more intrigued by the national security angle of this if copyright holders were going after, say, Palantir. But I just don't know how important they see these language models as being, or how interested they are in OpenAI's mission to discover AGI.
(1) Do you think "developing AGI" a realistic, achievable goal? If so, what evidence do you see that we're making progress on the problem of "general" intelligence? Specifically, what does any of that have to do with Large Language Models?
(2) Are there any "national security" applications of Large Language Models that you're aware of?
It seems to me that it would be a very difficult case to make that the national security impact from allowing the rule of law to erode would be somehow outmatched by the (speculative) wager that somehow LLMs have some relevance to the national security. It would be an even harder case to make that any of this has something to do with "general" intelligence.
If you manage to put a bunch of listening devices at a place you're moderately interested in, a cafeteria at an enemy base for example, you might end up with literally hundreds of hours of conversations, most of them completely uninteresting, but a few that might possibly contain nuggets of information of the utmost importance. Listening to all these conversations requires resources. This is even more difficult if the people there speak in jargon, in their own language, and nobody but an expert in the subject can determine which conversation snippets are significant.
If you have good LLMs, you can run all your recordings through extremely high-quality speech recognition and then use something like Chat GPT for summarization, classification, finding all mentions of the nuclear reactor in <place> etc. Same goes for satellite image analysis.
So should we put copyright through the shredder on the wager that somehow generative techniques will find applications for mass surveillance?
Let's say I want to replace the forklift operator at my local lumberyard with a robot forklift that can ostensibly outperform a human employee. Even if there is some magical AI program which could theoretically drive the forklift around, identify boards by their dimensions, species, dryness, location, etc., there's a whole bunch of sensory problems that a human body solves easily that are super hard to solve in the environment of a lumber yard. There's dust, rain, snow, mud--so if you're relying on cameras how will you keep them clean? You can't visually determine how dry a board is, you have to put a moisture meter on it and read the result. My point is, even if you have a "brain" capable of driving the forklift you still have a massively complex robotics problem to solve in order to automate just the forklift. And we haven't even begun to replace the other things the operator does in addition to driving the forklift. He can climb out of the forklift and adjust the forks, move boards by hand, affect repairs on equipment, communicate with other equipment operators, customers, etc.
Good luck replacing him in a cost-effective manner.
So what am I supposed to use it for?
Additionally, I'm not even sure the US is capable of having national priorities at the moment. The Congress has become incapable of making decisions. While the executive and the judiciary branches have stepped up to compensate, they tend to handle each issue separately without any general direction.
