This seems plausible, but is this just a throwaway statement or is it supported by historical evidence? It's actually a pretty interesting question, that has never occurred to me until now, how well people have historically been able to judge the safety and stability of their own political situations. Perhaps there's some literature out there on this?
I have no explicit evidence. I suspect its a combination of "head in the sand" and "I have no voice". In practical terms, you have no control over your country's future. Your vote is insignificant relative to the populace. So your next move is manage yourself and your families affairs and hope for the best. Frankly, the US's debt will crush it in the near future. How near is the question. There isn't much I can do about it. So, I put my head down and hope the fallout doesn't impact my family as much as others.
I don't have references, but I don't think people are all that good at it. Why else do strongman dictators keep getting into power?
Before the whole WW2 and holocaust thing, Germans really laughed off Hitler. They believed they were too artsy, too cosmopolitan, and just too advanced for a dictator.
So my guts tell me we're not great at judging real threats politically.
