1. Microsoft acquisition
2. IPO
3. Salesforce acquisition
The above are also in descending order of valuation. Adobe's $20B was pure pandemic-bubble premium; I doubt MSFT would pay much over half that, Salesforce less still, with an IPO somewhere in the middle.
The more interesting thing to me is actually what Adobe is going to do now, given their near-wind-down of XD. Narayen has almost certainly thought of this, and while it may not exactly be Adobe's typical MO... the opportunity they have now is the old "commoditize your complements." Specifically, to become the biggest corporate sponsor of Penpot.
I generally doubt they will, as it's not really in Adobe's DNA, but they could, and it would be quite an interesting turn of events.
