I don’t think we can declare a plateau just based on this. Actually, given that we have nothing but benchmarks and cherry picked examples, I would not be so quick to believe GPT-4V has been bested. PALM-2 was generally useless and plagued by hallucinations in my experience with Bard. It’ll be several months till Gemini Pro is even available. We also don’t know basic facts like the number of parameters or training set size.
I think the real story is that Google is badly lagging their competitors in this space and keeps issuing press releases claiming they are pulling ahead. In reality they are getting very little traction vs. OpenAI.
I’ll be very interested to see how LLMs continue to evolve over the next year. I suspect we are close to a model that will outperform 80% of human experts across 80% of cognitive tasks.
