"But it is also possible that the Russians would have launched a first strike on the USA if they were unopposed. It almost happened as it was!"
When did a first strike of the Sowjetunion allmost happened? I rather think it was the other way around, first strike was evaluated, to hit them before they got the bomb.
What do you mean? The soviets never considered a nuclear first strike? They hadn't even fully deployed the ballistic missiles. It was the Joint Chiefs of Staff which recommended a first strike (although not nuclear), which fortunately Kennedy overruled.