Look at your list of CAs sometime. There's multiple national organizations there. Controlled by a government.
And any of those will be deemed as valid, so if you go to https://www.torproject.org/download/ and it's signed by a Chinese CA for some reason, to your browser that's perfectly fine.
> What are the chances the official site AND the archive were both compromised?
You're talking about a piece of software that's designed to hide stuff from state level actors. If you're in actual need of such a thing, that threat is pretty damn serious.