They tried to murder him and after spending time in a German hospital he decided to go back knowing that they'll imprison him or try to kill him again.
I think the risk was huge (personally I thought 50-70% at the time), but not 99% or something. Also (in my opinion) people don't take into account that alternative was irrelevance in exile, just look at what happened with Kasparov's popularity inside Russia, and he was a prominent opposition activist in 2011-2012.
Then again, Kasparov undermines Russia more efficiently while in exile than Navalny while inside (a prison no less). And Navalvy social media statements in exile might have been even more undermining Kasparov's.
Of course, undermining Russia with words might not help at all anyway...
Before his imprisonment and prior to the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Navalny held positions that some might describe as nationalistic. For example, his stance on Crimea has been ambivalent, with statements that sometimes tacitly accept Russia's annexation of the region.
Navalny has a history of ethnocentric comments and has been involved in nationalist rallies in Russia. This complicates the narrative that he is solely a liberal figure fighting for democracy.
He opposes Putin's regime, but his political ideology doesn't necessarily align with values of international law, human rights, and economic freedoms.
But him facing jail with an upright stance shows a lot of skin in the game, you cannot ignore that.
That said western media does have the habit of glossing over the actual platform of any dictators opposition, see for instance the breathless adoration the Dalai Lama gets.
I genuinely wonder why his captors even continue to let him live, when it seems like any post-2022 civil protest in Russia can and will be brutally repressed.
For some people that's worse than death. It's a clear message from Putin. Get in my way and you'll end up like him.
Not everybody is going to take that risk.
Now there’s this white haired journalist that’s currently rotting in a British jail because of his work…
Or are we just doing whataboutism?
What remains is a fog, the uncertainty about there being truth at all. Assange should not be in prison. But the law has not decayed in the west to the point, were its non-existant anymore, power-mad anarchy dancing naked but a paper-loincloth in the streets ala russia.
The should free assange, just to silence these bots.
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/10/18/defense-lawyers-arreste...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-navalny-dissidents-prison-...
(I realize Russia is a banana republic and Navalny is a hero but does he actually represent something that has wide support in Russia? From the few Russians I have talked to, they seems supportive of Putin despite everything.)
1. Many of his most fervent followers fleeing the country in February or September 2022.
2. His team being useless and consisting of people of very questionable loyalty (the question remains why he let them all in), and in many cases under their own brands.
3. Overall switch from the anti-corruption discourse towards different set of topics, such as war, etc - where he does not have much relevance.
4. Him being AFK (not to blame him for that).
5. His organization FBK now resides abroad, burning grant money and not doing anything useful for Russian residents.
The overall statement is false (he remains the most recognized opposition figure in the country).
"When asked 300 days before presidential elections Russians say they would vote for:
30,2% Putin
2% Prigozhin
2% Navalny
1.3% Zhirinovsky (who is dead)"
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1663222792605630464
https://russianfield.com/300days
Not a lot, but still higher than other non-Putin candidates (except Prigozhin, who is now dead)
Firstly, many people wouldn't say they'd vote for Navalny -- that's just against the self-preservation instincts.
Secondly, there are many people who are not "in love" with Navalny, his team and personal views, but still think he'd be a much better president than Putin.
I'd personally estimate the count of people here (in Russia) that are neutral/neutral-positive/positive about Navalny at 15-25%. And much higher at hightech giants and top univesities at Moscow/Saint-Petersburg.
That Putin realized Russia was ripe for takeover is brilliant on his part, but it has been hell for the Russian people who allowed it to happen.
Was that a sarcastic comment or did you entirely miss out the whole Snowden affair ?
