Android is open-source, we could fall back to one of the alternate distros. Actually, we'd be better off without the Google services crap! The real reason we'd be fucked is that we'd lose mobile access to our Google-stored info, this is where the lock-in is. You can migrate, but it's _work_ and god are we lazy.
I’d expect vendor divergence and lock-in to ramp up almost immediately. It only doesn’t happen now because Google does so much work for them for free, that it’s not worth the cost. If they have to pick that up, they’ll get all shitty and proprietary about it ASAP.