The end result of my own investigation led to this quite satisfying thread on hotspot-compiler-dev, in which an engineer starts with my minimal reproduction of the problem and posts a workaround within 24 hours: https://mail.openjdk.org/pipermail/hotspot-compiler-dev/2021...
There's also a tip there: try a fastdebug build and see if you can convert it into an assertion failure you can look up.