As it stands, probably won't be heavily used until Java 25.
The one argument I've been able to make to get an update is "This has fallen out of support and will no longer get security updates". That seems to be the only motivator for my company to do updates.
So why did we create the LTS service? 1. Because the new feature releases, while no more risky than the old ones (like 7u4 and 8u20), do require a little more work that companies don't want to put into legacy applications, and 2. Many companies indeed are willing to pay for more stability for their legacy apps.
So while it is absolutely true that some projects want better stability, this level of stability is new. Companies that religiously stick to old versions now didn't do that in the past. The simplest explanation is that the new release model isn't yet understood, not that thousands of companies changed their risk strategy.
