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0 pointstheptip2y ago0 comments

Fukushima is a great example because the takeaway should have been “these systems are already over-engineered”, instead of “we need more regulations”.

Recall that more than 10k people died from the tsunami, of which on the order of 100 from the reactors when you account for lifetime exposure to radiation. I’d call that safe enough. (Maybe a better analysis around cost of cleanup, I haven’t run those numbers.)

More generally, I think a big part of the cost overruns come from the regulatory environment changing mid-project, requiring construction to rework things, or waiting for inspections.

I think it’s a false dichotomy to say our only choices are strict and ever-increasing regulation, or Chernobyl. 10% less regulation would be positive, and you can bet the engineers working in the industry know which 10% is the most stupid.

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dale_glass2y ago

> Fukushima is a great example because the takeaway should have been “these systems are already over-engineered”, instead of “we need more regulations”.

Absolutely not. There were a serious number of fuckups that were completely avoidable, had the proper rules been in place, and been followed, and had the right people been available. It would have been far cheap than dealing with the mess.

It was known the seawall was too low.

We have stories with heroic measures like workers collecting and hooking up car batteries to get equipment working. That's clearly an improvised effort, not a serious backup plan!

Apparently TEPCO refused US military generators, tried to send their own, and they got stuck in traffic.

There were multiple explosions, which resulted in broken equipment and evacuated workers.

Point is, it wasn't that some stuff got damaged in an ultimately harmless way, and everyone around just ran around like headless chickens for no good reason. Things indeed were serious, people were working around the clock to keep things together, and the situation was far from ideal. Without hard work it could have gotten considerably worse. So it absolutely wasn't over-engineered. Things held up, with a lot of effort and some good luck. They could have not worked out as well as they did.

And there were plenty instances in which the right measures and the right people could have saved a lot of trouble and made the whole thing go a whole lot smoother.

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