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0 pointshn_throwaway_992y ago0 comments

Very informative. Note from your 4th link I wasn't previously aware what "interconnection queues" were. This is a good overview: https://emp.lbl.gov/queues.

Importantly, though, only a small percentage of that capacity "in queue" will actually get built. From your link:

> Much of this proposed capacity will ultimately not be built, however, with only 23% of projects seeking connection from 2000 to 2016 having subsequently been built based on a LBNL analysis of a subset of queues. Only ISO-NE and ERCOT exceeded 30% completion rates, with CAISO performing the worst at 13%.

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toomuchtodo2y ago· 1 in thread

Good callout wrt queue completion ratios. Unfortunately, there aren't many comparable leading indicators of future generation to rely on (maybe EIA's 860M survey? [1] [2], but it only gives you a short look into the future). Plans are plans until steel is in the ground and glass is getting racked. Open to other suggestions if it improves modeling and forecasting.

Regardless, the amount of renewables and batteries coming online (at least in the US) can't be overstated [3].

[1] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/

[2] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/

[3] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c...

danans2y ago

> Regardless, the amount of renewables and batteries coming online (at least in the US) can't be overstated [3].

> [3] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c...

The "Other" generating unit type on that map is all over CA and TX. Looking at the source data for the map [1], it's mostly batteries. I'm surprised they didn't break those out as their own category.

1. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/

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