I do not think the soviets were involved, I think this
is an extremely risky move no one would do. I do think
there were probably fears it would be perceived as a
foreign assassination which drove some actions in the
US government.
I was vague on that because my post was overlong already and I don't have a clue or guess about who (if anybody) was involved besides Oswald.But I agree with you: I cannot imagine that Khrushchev or the leadership of the USSR wanted open war. For the same reasons the USA didn't.
There is definitely a middle ground sort of possibility, where Oswald was involved with the USSR to some extent (informant, or whatever) but they truly had no idea he was going to shoot JFK. That seems completely possible.
Of course, the Soviet government was enormous and not monolithic. Maybe some within it wanted war, maybe some thought that they could prod Oswald into an assassination without getting "caught."
Seems possible, but zero idea how likely that is.
The simplest scenario is: Oswald worked in tandem with a second rando guy who had a rifle and wanted the president dead. No shortage of those in America, a land with cheap rifles and ~16 million WWII vets who were trained to use them.
Anyway, if the US government doesn't want to
stir the cold war issues around the assassination,
is it a conspiracy or just common sense statesmanship?
Definitely common sense statesmanship.Arguably a conspiracy as well but that depends on our definition of "conspiracy."
The only thing I'm really sure of is that it was in the US government's best interests to sell the idea that Oswald was a lone crazy guy. That was the least-bad scenario for America.